Business Risk Advisor

Business Risk Advisor

The Libyan people’s political and economic hopes following the 2011 revolution, repeatedly confirmed by several elections over the years that followed, have been frustrated by political failure and armed conflict between rival politicians, regions and militias.

There is no sign of an early resolution to this conflict and things may get worse before they get better. But the country’s tribulations will pass and the Libyan people’s aspirations for a more settled and prosperous future will be within their reach once more. At that stage, Libya will look for goods, services and partnerships with overseas suppliers and, as an oil exporter, it will have the financial resources to pay for its people’s needs.

No-one can predict when stability will return, so it is crucial to monitor developments in-country to ensure that, when it does, LBBC members are ready to resume business.

The LBBC has created this page to provide members and their clients with access to up-to-date information and analyses. The material is supplied by professional risk advisory companies with staff on the ground in Libya.

This is not to say that there is no business to be done in Libya even now. Visible (and no doubt invisible) exports continue, albeit at a modest rate, and some contracts are offered. The risk advisory page provides a valuable resource for members considering responding to these business prospects and the opportunity to consult the companies involved on the conditions affecting the viability and location of the particular opportunities under consideration.

We are sure LBBC members – both experienced Libyan operators and businesses new to the Libyan market – will find the reports listed here (and the more detailed advice available from the respective providers) a valuable input to their business strategies and decision-making capabilities.

GardaWorld .Xplored Risk Analysis and Reporting:

Risk reports for Libya are produced in country and contain the very latest ground-truth information that analyses the current security situation, political, regulatory and cultural challenges. Reports are designed for people with operational reporting requirements and can support staff deployment and movement plans with their up-to-date review of current threat levels or risk in Libya.

For inquiries regarding bespoke reporting please contact our Regional Director for Libya: nicholas.bennett@garda.com or visit GARDAWORLD website.

Read the Libya .Xplored latest Libya Report 22 March 2020

Prepared by Risk Analysis Team, Libya

Libya Analysis Risk Analysis and Reporting:

Libya-Analysis ® is a consultancy firm specialising in bespoke analytical reporting, threat assessments and forecasting on Libya.

LIBYA-ANALYSIS ASSESSMENT: TRIPOLI CONFLICT 9 April

Key Points

  • The Libyan National Army (LNA) have launched an assault – dubbed Operation “Flood of Dignity” – to ‘liberate’ Tripoli.
  • This had led to a series of clashes throughout southern Tripoli.
  • Anti-LNA forces from Tripoli and Misrata have consolidated their forces under the Government of National Accord’s (GNA) Operation “Volcano of Rage” to push back against LNA and threaten the supply lines of the LNA forces.
  • There is an increased risk that the fighting will become protracted and expanded to multiple theatres including the areas in and around Sirte and Jufra.
  • Seizing Tripoli would see LNA leader Khalifa Haftar extract greater leverage and power by changing the facts on the ground and accessing central state institutions. A GNA-aligned victory would embolden western armed groups and reinforce the status quo in Tripoli
  • Division and factional positions amongst communities, militias and civil leaders are likely to become more entrenched – stalling any progress on national reunification efforts.
  • The UN effort to facilitate a unity government through the National Conference has been undermined. Likewise, the international community’s credibility in Libya as mediators and peace brokers has been damaged.

For further information please contact Rhiannon Smith, Managing Director of Libya-Analysis® (rhi@libya-analysis.com)

Executive Summary from the Libya Country Operations Manager 24 March 2020​

Tajoura Municipal Council announced on Sunday 22nd March 2020 a complete curfew in the municipality of Tajoura for a period of two weeks starting at 1800hrs on Tuesday 24th March 2020.  The municipal council said, in a statement on the social media outlet of the Mayor of Tajoura Municipality on Sunday, that the decision came based on the danger posed by the Corona virus epidemic and the continuation of what was described as “weak government performance and the absence of financial support for municipalities” to confront this crisis, adding that “it was clear to the municipalities the slow and late government response in providing urgent support and introducing suitable contingencies”, which they said might come after days. The municipality stressed that this delay “constitutes fears on the futility of continuing to believe these promises” with the ineffectiveness of the crisis committee, which was formed without allocating any financial support for it to commence it’s work, “the crisis committee was supposed to meet the municipalities, and this was not done, there was also delays in the delivery of motor vehicles for the municipal guard force and pesticide spraying cars”. It is worth mentioning that this announcement should not be confused with the partial curfew imposed by the Government of National Accord on Sunday 22nd March 2020, from 1800hrs to 0600hrs. This announcement only affects the municipality of Tajoura and the governmental institutions and business with its administrative borders.

The Director of the Transportation Office at the Municipality of al-Shwayref, Osama Sultan, said that a “terrorist explosion targeted the road linking al-Shwayref with al-Qaryat town”, located around 350km north of Sabha. Sultan clarified in statements to Libya 218 channel on Sunday 22nd March 2020 that the explosion took place at around 0200hrs on the eve of Friday 20th March 2020 and targeted a waterway bridge using RPG and artillery shells. The Director of the Transportation Office appealed to the official authorities to urgently intervene to repair the damage caused by the explosion, as the bombing hindered the movement of travellers, as the al-Shwayref – Gharyan Road, which runs through al-Qaryat is one of the only remaining main roads connecting the southern and the northern areas, describing this incident as a “terrorist act”.

The Media Centre of Operation “Volcano’s Wrath” said that the GNA naval forces on Sunday 22nd March seized a sea tanker transporting aviation fuel to the Libyan National Army. The centre quoted the Commander of the Naval Combat front, Colonel Reda Issa, as saying “Our forces managed to seize a ship flying the Liberian flag and involved in transporting aviation fuel to LNA forces, the vessel is named Golf Petroleum 4”. He added that “The ship was seized at sea this evening, on Sunday 22nd March 2020, and the operation was carried out by the central sector of the coast guard and port security”. The Media Centre of Operation “Volcano’s Wrath” indicated that it will publish the results of the investigations into the ship as soon as it is completed. This comes at a time when both the GNA and the LNA announced their welcome of the international calls for a humanitarian ceasefire to confront the emerging Corona virus.

Minister of Health, Ahmed bin Omar has confirmed that the ministry had imported 150 ventilators, as part of its measures to counter the threat of corona’s infiltration into Libya. Speaking earlier yesterday, Omar clarified that the ministry is in the process of establishing centres in a number of regions to house any suspected cases of coronavirus. He indicated that medical teams in Libya are undergoing training in cooperation with international organizations prior to their deployment to the centres dedicated to Covid-19 patients.

The Inkerman Group:

The Inkerman Group is an international business risk and intelligence company, working throughout the world to identify and monitor the risks, threats and vulnerabilities facing businesses today, and delivering solutions that counter or mitigate them.

The Inkerman Group will be posting quarterly updates onto this page but also produce daily and monthly updates by subscription.  Please contact Konrad Petraitis for details on how to subscribe konrad.petraitis@inkerman.com.

The Inkerman Group Libya Monthly Risk Review January 2020