Business Risk Advisor

Business Risk Advisor

The Libyan people’s political and economic hopes following the 2011 revolution, repeatedly confirmed by several elections over the years that followed, have been frustrated by political failure and armed conflict between rival politicians, regions and militias.

There is no sign of an early resolution to this conflict and things may get worse before they get better. But the country’s tribulations will pass and the Libyan people’s aspirations for a more settled and prosperous future will be within their reach once more. At that stage, Libya will look for goods, services and partnerships with overseas suppliers and, as an oil exporter, it will have the financial resources to pay for its people’s needs.

No-one can predict when stability will return, so it is crucial to monitor developments in-country to ensure that, when it does, LBBC members are ready to resume business.

The LBBC has created this page to provide members and their clients with access to up-to-date information and analyses. The material is supplied by professional risk advisory companies with staff on the ground in Libya.

This is not to say that there is no business to be done in Libya even now. Visible (and no doubt invisible) exports continue, albeit at a modest rate, and some contracts are offered. The risk advisory page provides a valuable resource for members considering responding to these business prospects and the opportunity to consult the companies involved on the conditions affecting the viability and location of the particular opportunities under consideration.

We are sure LBBC members – both experienced Libyan operators and businesses new to the Libyan market – will find the reports listed here (and the more detailed advice available from the respective providers) a valuable input to their business strategies and decision-making capabilities.

GardaWorld .Xplored Risk Analysis and Reporting:

Risk reports for Libya are produced in country and contain the very latest ground-truth information that analyses the current security situation, political, regulatory and cultural challenges. Reports are designed for people with operational reporting requirements and can support staff deployment and movement plans with their up-to-date review of current threat levels or risk in Libya.

For inquiries regarding bespoke reporting please contact our Regional Director for Libya: nicholas.bennett@garda.com or visit GARDAWORLD website.

Read the Libya .Xplored latest Libya Report 2 August 2019

Prepared by Risk Analysis Team, Libya

Libya Analysis Risk Analysis and Reporting:

Libya-Analysis ® is a consultancy firm specialising in bespoke analytical reporting, threat assessments and forecasting on Libya.

LIBYA-ANALYSIS ASSESSMENT: TRIPOLI CONFLICT 9 April

Key Points

  • The Libyan National Army (LNA) have launched an assault – dubbed Operation “Flood of Dignity” – to ‘liberate’ Tripoli.
  • This had led to a series of clashes throughout southern Tripoli.
  • Anti-LNA forces from Tripoli and Misrata have consolidated their forces under the Government of National Accord’s (GNA) Operation “Volcano of Rage” to push back against LNA and threaten the supply lines of the LNA forces.
  • There is an increased risk that the fighting will become protracted and expanded to multiple theatres including the areas in and around Sirte and Jufra.
  • Seizing Tripoli would see LNA leader Khalifa Haftar extract greater leverage and power by changing the facts on the ground and accessing central state institutions. A GNA-aligned victory would embolden western armed groups and reinforce the status quo in Tripoli
  • Division and factional positions amongst communities, militias and civil leaders are likely to become more entrenched – stalling any progress on national reunification efforts.
  • The UN effort to facilitate a unity government through the National Conference has been undermined. Likewise, the international community’s credibility in Libya as mediators and peace brokers has been damaged.

For further information please contact Rhiannon Smith, Managing Director of Libya-Analysis® (rhi@libya-analysis.com)

Janus Global Operations

We continue to keep our permanent expat country management team on the ground in Tripoli supporting our clients international and local personnel as well as critical infrastructure. We are also currently involved in working with many of our clients on their re-entry planning, security risk management surveys and political sector analysis.
www.janusgo.com

Janus Global Operations Executive Summary – 13.07.2019

The Khalifa Hafter-led Libyan National Army has announced within the last hour that it has accepted Tripoli’s conditional truce over the four-day Eid Al-Adha feast of sacrifice period. The LNA statement said that the truce was accepted out of respect to the occasion of the holy Islamic Eid Al-Adha feast of sacrifice in order that that Libyan citizens could enjoy a peaceful feast. The truce will be on all military operations on the outskirts of the capital Tripoli from 3 pm (Libya time) today until 3 pm Tuesday 12 August. The statement warned that the LNA would respond instantly and with force against any operations or movements of any kind on all fronts that are seen as a transgression of this truce or any attempts to exploit the truce to make any progress. It will be recalled that the Faiez Serraj-led Presidency Council and Government of National Accord had announced late last night a four-point conditional truce. In response, UNSMIL had announced its disappointment earlier today that the eastern Libyan side had not responded positively to the proposed truce.

Three UN staff members and two others were killed when a bomb-laden vehicle exploded on Saturday in the eastern Libyan city of Benghazi just hours after the country’s warning sides agreed to an Eid ceasefire. Health officials said the blast took place outside Arkan Mall in the Hawari neighbourhood, where people were gathering for shopping a day before the Eid Al Adha holiday began. The Benghazi municipal council said the attack targeted a convoy for the UN Support Mission in Libya. The site of the attack is close to offices of the mission in Libya. Two of the dead were from Libya and the blast wounded nine people, according to health officials who spoke on condition of anonymity. Stephane Dujarric, a spokesman for UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, said that three UN workers were among the wounded.

Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry confirmed that a Ukrainian cargo plane had been struck at Misrata airport in Libya while offloading humanitarian aids for the Libyan Red Crescent. The foreign ministry said that a Ukrainian cargo plane (IL-76) was destroyed as a result of a missile attack on the airport on Monday, according to a report by Interfax-Ukraine News Agency. “As a result of the attack, the plane’s tail was destroyed, the operator of the crew was slightly injured, and the passport documents of the air navigator were destroyed. The entire crew of the plane was evacuated to a safe place.” The ministry said. It was also reported that the plane was performing a humanitarian cargo transportation flight for the needs of the Libyan Red Crescent Society and had all the necessary permits.

The United States Embassy in Libya expressed its deep concern about the shelling of Murzuq town, southwest of Libya, including the aerial attack conducted on August 5, which resulted in the death and injury of a large number of civilians. In a statement, the embassy urged the parties to the conflict in Libya to halt the military escalation immediately and stop attacks against Mitiga Airport, saying that it threats the pilgrims traveling for Hajj and the safety and security of the civil aviation traffic. It also called on all parties to step up their efforts to protect civilians and to return expeditiously to the UN-brokered political process.

The CEO of the General Electricity Company of Libya (GECOL), Ali Sassi said that the company has taken new effective and decisive measures to ensure fair distribution of load shedding hours between regions. “The new strategy adopted with the Presidential Council (PC), partly focused on securing stations and control centres, to ensure optimal functioning of the electricity network,” Sassi said in a press statement.  He further explained that the other part of this strategy will concentrate efforts to complete a number of stalled projects, expressing hope that they will be able to convince the contracted companies, in order to resume their work again.

The Embassy of the United States of America called on all parties in Libya to redouble their efforts to protect civilians and prevent damage to civilian infrastructure.  The US embassy urged on Wednesday for an immediate de-escalation and halt to attacks against Mitiga Airport in Tripoli, which endangered Libyan civilians seeking to perform the Hajj pilgrimage on August 3.

Vellichor Group Limited specialises in delivering integrated, and customisable defence, security and counterterrorism solutions to clients worldwide. Vellichor has combined a team of world-class subject matter experts, an extensive internal & external worldwide industry network and an ability to develop customisable security solutions to mitigate risk in any environment.

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