Business Risk Advisor

Business Risk Advisor

The Libyan people’s political and economic hopes following the 2011 revolution, repeatedly confirmed by several elections over the years that followed, have been frustrated by political failure and armed conflict between rival politicians, regions and militias.

There is no sign of an early resolution to this conflict and things may get worse before they get better. But the country’s tribulations will pass and the Libyan people’s aspirations for a more settled and prosperous future will be within their reach once more. At that stage, Libya will look for goods, services and partnerships with overseas suppliers and, as an oil exporter, it will have the financial resources to pay for its people’s needs.

No-one can predict when stability will return, so it is crucial to monitor developments in-country to ensure that, when it does, LBBC members are ready to resume business.

The LBBC has created this page to provide members and their clients with access to up-to-date information and analyses. The material is supplied by professional risk advisory companies with staff on the ground in Libya.

This is not to say that there is no business to be done in Libya even now. Visible (and no doubt invisible) exports continue, albeit at a modest rate, and some contracts are offered. The risk advisory page provides a valuable resource for members considering responding to these business prospects and the opportunity to consult the companies involved on the conditions affecting the viability and location of the particular opportunities under consideration.

We are sure LBBC members – both experienced Libyan operators and businesses new to the Libyan market – will find the reports listed here (and the more detailed advice available from the respective providers) a valuable input to their business strategies and decision-making capabilities.

GardaWorld .Xplored Risk Analysis and Reporting:

Risk reports for Libya are produced in country and contain the very latest ground-truth information that analyses the current security situation, political, regulatory and cultural challenges. Reports are designed for people with operational reporting requirements and can support staff deployment and movement plans with their up-to-date review of current threat levels or risk in Libya.

For inquiries regarding bespoke reporting please contact our Regional Director for Libya: nicholas.bennett@garda.com or visit GARDAWORLD website.

Read the Libya .Xplored latest Libya Report 12 July 2019

Prepared by Risk Analysis Team, Libya

Libya Analysis Risk Analysis and Reporting:

Libya-Analysis ® is a consultancy firm specialising in bespoke analytical reporting, threat assessments and forecasting on Libya.

LIBYA-ANALYSIS ASSESSMENT: TRIPOLI CONFLICT 9 April

Key Points

  • The Libyan National Army (LNA) have launched an assault – dubbed Operation “Flood of Dignity” – to ‘liberate’ Tripoli.
  • This had led to a series of clashes throughout southern Tripoli.
  • Anti-LNA forces from Tripoli and Misrata have consolidated their forces under the Government of National Accord’s (GNA) Operation “Volcano of Rage” to push back against LNA and threaten the supply lines of the LNA forces.
  • There is an increased risk that the fighting will become protracted and expanded to multiple theatres including the areas in and around Sirte and Jufra.
  • Seizing Tripoli would see LNA leader Khalifa Haftar extract greater leverage and power by changing the facts on the ground and accessing central state institutions. A GNA-aligned victory would embolden western armed groups and reinforce the status quo in Tripoli
  • Division and factional positions amongst communities, militias and civil leaders are likely to become more entrenched – stalling any progress on national reunification efforts.
  • The UN effort to facilitate a unity government through the National Conference has been undermined. Likewise, the international community’s credibility in Libya as mediators and peace brokers has been damaged.

For further information please contact Rhiannon Smith, Managing Director of Libya-Analysis® (rhi@libya-analysis.com)

Janus Global Operations

We continue to keep our permanent expat country management team on the ground in Tripoli supporting our clients international and local personnel as well as critical infrastructure. We are also currently involved in working with many of our clients on their re-entry planning, security risk management surveys and political sector analysis.
www.janusgo.com

Janus Global Operations Executive Summary – 02.07.2019

Armed Clashes are still on-going on all fronts around the southern areas of Tripoli, the fiercest of which occurred around Tripoli International Airport. LNA forces continue to control the airport and seem dug in quite well in defensive positions while GNA forces remain on the offensive. GNA forces are reported to have suffered heavy losses during their last attempt at taking the airport early this week. Aziziyah town remains under GNA control, while al-Twaisha remains under the control of the LNA. Al-Hira axis has reported sporadic clashes and there seems to be a lull in the fighting at this axis. Criminality remains high around various neighbourhoods of Tripoli with the rise of car jackings and armed robberies.

The Khalifa Haftar Libyan National Army (LNA) and their allied forces suffered a major setback today when the Tripoli forces aligned to the internationally recognized Faiez Serraj-led Presidency Council and Government of National Accord pushed them back to the north of Gharyan. The situation is still fluid with conflicting reports. However, it seems that at some point today, local forces aligned with Tripoli from either within or just outside Gharyan – caught the pro Haftar forces by surprise forcing them to withdraw in haste. The attack was also supported by air strikes. Equally, it now seems that the heavy attack and focus by the Tripoli forces on the disused Tripoli International Airport may have been a decoy attack. Alternatively, the pro Haftar forces may have over committed forces to the Tripoli Airport front leaving an opportunity for the Tripoli forces to exploit light cover in their back lines in Gharyan.

The spokesman for Khalifa Haftar’s forces in eastern Libya, Ahmed Al-Mismari, said his commander (Haftar) announced a ban on any commercial flights from Libya to Turkey and will prevent any Turkish ships from docking in the country. Al-Mismari said in a weekly presser that any aircraft arriving from Turkey attempting to land in the capital Tripoli would be treated as hostile, adding that the same would apply to Turkish ships docking at Libyan ports. “Libyan National Army (LNA) force would attack any Turkish military presence, without elaborating.” Al-Mismari said.

Six Turkish sailors were released by forces loyal to the east Libyan commander Khalifa Haftar Monday following a cascade of events that have both changed dynamics on the nation’s front lines and highlighted Ankara’s growing role in the ongoing conflict. Haftar, who leads the Libya National Army (LNA) and controls much of the country’s eastern and southern regions, launched an offensive in April on Tripoli, the seat of UN-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA). Following months of intense fighting, a surprise defeat on Wednesday forced Haftar’s troops to retreat from a key front-line position on the outskirts of Tripoli. Furious, Haftar ordered a “harsh response” to the loss while accusing Turkey of supplying his rivals with armed drones, weapons and military vehicles. The LNA imposed a ban on commercial flights from Libya to Turkey as well as a blockade on Turkish ships docking in the country. Then on Sunday, LNA forces destroyed an armed Turkish drone stationed in Tripoli’s Mitiga airport and detained six Turkish citizens in an unprecedented escalation between Haftar and Ankara.

Libya’s coastguard said Friday it had rescued almost 400 migrants in four separate operations this week. “Coastguard patrols rescued 391 clandestine migrants” from inflatable boats in operations on Monday, Tuesday and Thursday, navy spokesman General Ayoub Kacem said in a statement.  He said Monday’s mission saw 117 migrants rescued off the coastal town of Zliten, some 140 kilometres east of Tripoli and a key departure point for sub-Saharan migrants launching desperate bids to reach Europe. A further 45 were rescued on Tuesday off the port of Khoms while 97 and 132 were respectively rescued in two operations off the same town on Thursday, he said. Most of the migrants, from sub-Saharan African countries and Asia, were placed in facilities in Khoms, Zliten and Soug el-Khamis.

Vellichor Group Limited specialises in delivering integrated, and customisable defence, security and counterterrorism solutions to clients worldwide. Vellichor has combined a team of world-class subject matter experts, an extensive internal & external worldwide industry network and an ability to develop customisable security solutions to mitigate risk in any environment.

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