Business Risk Advisor

Business Risk Advisor

The Libyan people’s political and economic hopes following the 2011 revolution, repeatedly confirmed by several elections over the years that followed, have been frustrated by political failure and armed conflict between rival politicians, regions and militias.

There is no sign of an early resolution to this conflict and things may get worse before they get better. But the country’s tribulations will pass and the Libyan people’s aspirations for a more settled and prosperous future will be within their reach once more. At that stage, Libya will look for goods, services and partnerships with overseas suppliers and, as an oil exporter, it will have the financial resources to pay for its people’s needs.

No-one can predict when stability will return, so it is crucial to monitor developments in-country to ensure that, when it does, LBBC members are ready to resume business.

The LBBC has created this page to provide members and their clients with access to up-to-date information and analyses. The material is supplied by professional risk advisory companies with staff on the ground in Libya.

This is not to say that there is no business to be done in Libya even now. Visible (and no doubt invisible) exports continue, albeit at a modest rate, and some contracts are offered. The risk advisory page provides a valuable resource for members considering responding to these business prospects and the opportunity to consult the companies involved on the conditions affecting the viability and location of the particular opportunities under consideration.

We are sure LBBC members – both experienced Libyan operators and businesses new to the Libyan market – will find the reports listed here (and the more detailed advice available from the respective providers) a valuable input to their business strategies and decision-making capabilities.

GardaWorld .Xplored Risk Analysis and Reporting:

Risk reports for Libya are produced in country and contain the very latest ground-truth information that analyses the current security situation, political, regulatory and cultural challenges. Reports are designed for people with operational reporting requirements and can support staff deployment and movement plans with their up-to-date review of current threat levels or risk in Libya.

For inquiries regarding bespoke reporting please contact our Regional Director for Libya: nicholas.bennett@garda.com or visit GARDAWORLD website.

Read the Libya .Xplored latest Libya Report 15 September 2019

Prepared by Risk Analysis Team, Libya

Libya Analysis Risk Analysis and Reporting:

Libya-Analysis ® is a consultancy firm specialising in bespoke analytical reporting, threat assessments and forecasting on Libya.

LIBYA-ANALYSIS ASSESSMENT: TRIPOLI CONFLICT 9 April

Key Points

  • The Libyan National Army (LNA) have launched an assault – dubbed Operation “Flood of Dignity” – to ‘liberate’ Tripoli.
  • This had led to a series of clashes throughout southern Tripoli.
  • Anti-LNA forces from Tripoli and Misrata have consolidated their forces under the Government of National Accord’s (GNA) Operation “Volcano of Rage” to push back against LNA and threaten the supply lines of the LNA forces.
  • There is an increased risk that the fighting will become protracted and expanded to multiple theatres including the areas in and around Sirte and Jufra.
  • Seizing Tripoli would see LNA leader Khalifa Haftar extract greater leverage and power by changing the facts on the ground and accessing central state institutions. A GNA-aligned victory would embolden western armed groups and reinforce the status quo in Tripoli
  • Division and factional positions amongst communities, militias and civil leaders are likely to become more entrenched – stalling any progress on national reunification efforts.
  • The UN effort to facilitate a unity government through the National Conference has been undermined. Likewise, the international community’s credibility in Libya as mediators and peace brokers has been damaged.

For further information please contact Rhiannon Smith, Managing Director of Libya-Analysis® (rhi@libya-analysis.com)

Janus Global Operations

We continue to keep our permanent expat country management team on the ground in Tripoli supporting our clients international and local personnel as well as critical infrastructure. We are also currently involved in working with many of our clients on their re-entry planning, security risk management surveys and political sector analysis.
www.janusgo.com

Janus Global Operations Executive Summary – 17.09.2019

Today marks the 88th anniversary of the martyrdom of Omar Al-Mukhtar who is considered as a symbol of resistance for his heroic steadfastness in resisting the Italian invasion. Several Libyan cities celebrate the anniversary every year on 16 September, which is declared as a national holiday. Omar al-Mukhtar was born in Tobruk in 1858. He led the resistance in eastern Libya against the Italian occupiers for twenty years until he was captured on September 11, 1931, after his horse was shot and fell to the ground in a clash near Ain el-Louf area. On September 15 of the same year, a mock trial was conducted for Al-Mukhtar before being executed on September 16, 1931, in Suluq town, south of Benghazi.

Khalifa Haftar’s Air Force warplanes and ground forces struck and shelled with Grad rockets Mitiga Airport in Tripoli early on Saturday. The attacks on Mitiga Airport came after hours of the announcement of killing commander of 9th Brigade Abdelwahhab Al-Migri, militia leader Mohsen Al-Kani and his brother Abdeladeem, who all died in clashes with the Volcano of Rage operation under the Presidential Council’s government on Ain Zara frontline in southern Tripoli.

Germany is aiming to host a conference about Libya this year in conjunction with the United Nations to try to stabilise Libya, Germany’s ambassador to Libya said on Wednesday. The plans, which are still in the early stages according to diplomats, are the first major diplomatic push since eastern forces loyal to Khalifa Haftar launched in April an offensive to take the capital Tripoli, held by the internationally recognised Government of National Accord. UN Libya envoy Ghassan Salame last month unveiled plans for an international Libya conference to bring together foreign powers backing rival groups on the ground, without naming a venue.

The Libyan Air Force of the Government of National Accord based in Tripoli carried out in early hours of Friday precision airstrikes on Khalifa Haftar’s defense system weapons and forces based at the Al-Jufra airbase in central Libya. The spokesman for the Libyan Army under GNA’s command Mohammed Gununu said Friday that the airstrikes crippled Haftar’s forces air defense system and caused them great material and fighters’ losses.

Warplanes affiliated with Khalifa Haftar’s Air Force have struck military positions for Sirte Protection Force (SPF) inside Sirte, the media office of the force said, adding that there could be some sort of cooperation between Haftar’s forces and ISIS militants who have been for the last few days trying to infiltrate into the region but failed due to the operations of the SPF. The media office added that the strikes might have been carried out by foreign warplanes. According to the spokesman for the SPF, Taha Hadid, two people were killed, and 11 others were injured in three airstrikes on the SPF positions on Monday.

The World Health Organization (WHO) on Monday said it provided medical supplies to remote areas in southern Libya, with the support of the United Nations Central Emergency Response Fund (UNCERF).  “Medical supplies for people living in remote areas near Ubari have arrived thanks at support from UNCERF,” WHO tweeted. “WHO recently delivered medicine supplies across Libya to help 220,000 patients for 3 months. The supplies treat infections, injuries and chronic diseases,” WHO said.

The Chief of the Anti-Illegal Immigration Agency, Colonel Mabrouk Abdulhafid, has confirmed that the number of illegal immigrants in Libya amounts to 707,000 thousand; only 7,000 of them are accommodated in immigration centres. In his remarks at the 5th African Forum on Migration, which took place in Cairo, Colonel Abdulhafid called on the African Union countries to support the Libyan state in this file, stressing that support should not be limited to helping those inside shelters. He also emphasized the need to develop overall solutions to the migration issue.

Vellichor Group Limited specialises in delivering integrated, and customisable defence, security and counterterrorism solutions to clients worldwide. Vellichor has combined a team of world-class subject matter experts, an extensive internal & external worldwide industry network and an ability to develop customisable security solutions to mitigate risk in any environment.

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