Business Risk Advisor

Business Risk Advisor

The Libyan people’s political and economic hopes following the 2011 revolution, repeatedly confirmed by several elections over the years that followed, have been frustrated by political failure and armed conflict between rival politicians, regions and militias.

There is no sign of an early resolution to this conflict and things may get worse before they get better. But the country’s tribulations will pass and the Libyan people’s aspirations for a more settled and prosperous future will be within their reach once more. At that stage, Libya will look for goods, services and partnerships with overseas suppliers and, as an oil exporter, it will have the financial resources to pay for its people’s needs.

No-one can predict when stability will return, so it is crucial to monitor developments in-country to ensure that, when it does, LBBC members are ready to resume business.

The LBBC has created this page to provide members and their clients with access to up-to-date information and analyses. The material is supplied by professional risk advisory companies with staff on the ground in Libya.

This is not to say that there is no business to be done in Libya even now. Visible (and no doubt invisible) exports continue, albeit at a modest rate, and some contracts are offered. The risk advisory page provides a valuable resource for members considering responding to these business prospects and the opportunity to consult the companies involved on the conditions affecting the viability and location of the particular opportunities under consideration.

We are sure LBBC members – both experienced Libyan operators and businesses new to the Libyan market – will find the reports listed here (and the more detailed advice available from the respective providers) a valuable input to their business strategies and decision-making capabilities.

GardaWorld .Xplored Risk Analysis and Reporting:

Risk reports for Libya are produced in country and contain the very latest ground-truth information that analyses the current security situation, political, regulatory and cultural challenges. Reports are designed for people with operational reporting requirements and can support staff deployment and movement plans with their up-to-date review of current threat levels or risk in Libya.

For inquiries regarding bespoke reporting please contact our Regional Director for Libya: nicholas.bennett@garda.com or visit GARDAWORLD website.

Read the Libya .Xplored latest Libya Report 17 May 2019

Prepared by Risk Analysis Team, Libya

Libya Analysis Risk Analysis and Reporting:

Libya-Analysis ® is a consultancy firm specialising in bespoke analytical reporting, threat assessments and forecasting on Libya.

LIBYA-ANALYSIS ASSESSMENT: TRIPOLI CONFLICT 9 April

Key Points

  • The Libyan National Army (LNA) have launched an assault – dubbed Operation “Flood of Dignity” – to ‘liberate’ Tripoli.
  • This had led to a series of clashes throughout southern Tripoli.
  • Anti-LNA forces from Tripoli and Misrata have consolidated their forces under the Government of National Accord’s (GNA) Operation “Volcano of Rage” to push back against LNA and threaten the supply lines of the LNA forces.
  • There is an increased risk that the fighting will become protracted and expanded to multiple theatres including the areas in and around Sirte and Jufra.
  • Seizing Tripoli would see LNA leader Khalifa Haftar extract greater leverage and power by changing the facts on the ground and accessing central state institutions. A GNA-aligned victory would embolden western armed groups and reinforce the status quo in Tripoli
  • Division and factional positions amongst communities, militias and civil leaders are likely to become more entrenched – stalling any progress on national reunification efforts.
  • The UN effort to facilitate a unity government through the National Conference has been undermined. Likewise, the international community’s credibility in Libya as mediators and peace brokers has been damaged.

For further information please contact Rhiannon Smith, Managing Director of Libya-Analysis® (rhi@libya-analysis.com)

Janus Global Operations

We continue to keep our permanent expat country management team on the ground in Tripoli supporting our clients international and local personnel as well as critical infrastructure. We are also currently involved in working with many of our clients on their re-entry planning, security risk management surveys and political sector analysis.
www.janusgo.com

Janus Global Operations Executive Summary – 23.04.2019

Clashes continue around the south of Tripoli.  LNA announced it had gained control over “several new sites” inside the capital, and the military information centre said in a statement posted on its Facebook page that the forces are advancing, while GNA militias are retreating, indicating that military reinforcements are arriving to various military brigades and army battalions at the earliest.  Clashes in Tripoli has killed at least 220 people and wounded more than 1,066 others, announced the United Nations’ World Health Organization.

The death toll from ongoing fighting between Libyan rivals in the capital Tripoli has risen to 254 and hundreds of others injured, according to the World Health Organization (WHO) on Monday.  “The death toll of the clashes in Tripoli has hit 254, and 1,228 people have been injured,” the WHO said on Twitter.  “Specialized emergency medical teams in frontline hospitals handled 89 major and 63 surgeries. Our teams are bringing in additional help for these hospitals,” it added.

State Minister for the Displaced Persons, Yousuf Jalala confirmed that the number of families who fled their homes since the beginning of the war on Tripoli has increased to more than 5,000. “Since the start of the war, the ministry has formed several emergency committees to manage the crisis and receive the displaced families,” Jalala explained in a press statement Sunday, adding that the ministry is continuing efforts to distribute the basic needs of displaced people residing schools, hotels, and other places allocated by the municipal councils.

The UN envoy to Libya Ghassan Salame hailed Saturday the keenness of Libyans to hold municipal elections despite the current conflict in the country. On Twitter, Salame said that seven municipalities hold today elections and he hail their persistence for taking part in them. Brak Al-Shati, Edri Al-Shati, Al-Rahibat, Ubari, Al-Garda Al-Shati, Al-Shwairif, and Zelton all held municipal elections on Saturday. The Central Commission of Municipal Councils Elections (CCMCE) tweeted that the voters were received starting 9.00 AM and would at 6.00 PM local time, saying the time could be extended for two more hours if the turnout was more than expected.

The Information Department Director of the General Electricity Company of Libya (GECOL), Mohamed Al-Takouri said that the losses suffered by the company due to the war were estimated at 62 million dinars. “These estimates are preliminary because the maintenance teams were unable to carry out damage assessments for several areas due to the heavy clashes,” Al-Takouri explained. He also noted that hostilities have caused extensive damage to the electricity transmission circuits and distribution lines in the areas of Ain Zara, Swani, Aziziyah, Al-Hira, and the city of Gharyan, which led to a total blackout in these areas.

Sources in Tunisia said that the Tunisian Foreign Ministry prevented the foreign minister of the east-based interim government in Libya; loyal to Haftar, from holding a press conference in Tunis yesterday, underlining that it does not recognize any other government in Libya than the government in Tripoli. The east-based interim government announced in a statement yesterday the postponement of a press conference in Tunis to give a brief on the latest developments on the ground in Libya.

The production of Sharara oilfield has reached 285 thousand barrels per day, according to Reuters. The National Oil Corporation (NOC) announced earlier that the production and export process of oil has not been affected so far by the ongoing war in the outskirts of Tripoli. At the same time, it warned that if confrontations expand to areas of oil fields and ports, it would pose the greatest threat to the oil sector in Libya since the 2011 uprising.

Vellichor Group Limited specialises in delivering integrated, and customisable defence, security and counterterrorism solutions to clients worldwide. Vellichor has combined a team of world-class subject matter experts, an extensive internal & external worldwide industry network and an ability to develop customisable security solutions to mitigate risk in any environment.

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